Population projection for the municipality of Mäntsälä

MDI produced a population projection in multiple scenarios for the municipality of Mäntsälä. The projection modelled population development for the period 2023-2050 for the whole municipality and for its different parts. The projection was based on the MDI’s population projection model which depicts population development by age group and gender.

The work had two parts: an analysis of past population development and a projection of future development. The analysis of past population development studied the characteristics of the past development, the essential changes in population and important trends in the development. The analysis of past development identified, for example, the effects of declining birth rates. The population projection contained three scenarios for future development, with future population growth varying from meagre to rapid. The projection identified a number of key trends in relation to future development, e.g. the decline in school-aged children due to lower birth rates, population ageing and the differential development of Mäntsälä’s neighbourhoods.

The key findings were reported in a visualised ppt-document with all of the data from the projection granted to the municipality of Mäntsälä.