District-level population projection for Kuopio

The City of Kuopio updated its population projections as significant changes have occurred in the city’s demographic development during the 2020s as a result of a sharp decline in the birth rate and an increase in volume of immigration and internal migration. The city is growing at a record rate, but the number of children born is at a record low. These changes will have a major impact on future planning, particularly at the district level.

MDI prepared a district-level population projection for Kuopio based on these assumptions during the summer and autumn of 2024. The demographic projection was based on a examination of Kuopio’s past demographic development, identifying the impact of key demographic changes on the city’s demographic composition and assessing, among other things, differences in fertility development within the various districts of Kuopio.

Three future scenarios modelling different growth rates for the city were created on the basis of past developments. Based on these assumptions, the future demographic development of the city was modelled for the period 2023–2040 at the district level, while taking into account the differences in development between the different districts and the characteristics of the population growth structure. The final result was a projection of the future demographic development of the city and its districts by age group, based on the most recent data.
The main results of past and projected future trends were reported in a concise and visual ppt report. The work was completed in autumn, 2024.