Student Number Forecast for the University of Oulu

This project developed a model of the future development of the number of students at the University of Oulu at both the university-wide and faculty levels, covering the period up to 2050. The work was carried out to support the University of Oulu’s real estate strategy.

As a basis for the analysis, previous developments were examined, first describing the demographic development of areas relevant to Oulu, as well as trends in applications to higher education and the development of the student population at the University of Oulu.

MDI’s population forecast was then used to model and analyse future population development up to 2050, taking into account, among other factors, the effects of the significant decline in the birth rate on the development of younger age groups. The population forecast served as the basis for the student number forecast.

The actual student number forecast was developed by combining the population forecast’s projections of future development by geographical area and language group with coefficients calculated based on current application and admission rates. This enabled the number of new students to be estimated. The student number forecast was then derived from the current number of students and the projected number of new students, by simulating the lengths of different degree programmes, changes of field of study, and programme discontinuations.

Finally, several alternative scenarios were developed, taking into account, among other factors, the capacity of different fields to significantly increase the share of students admitted, as well as potential changes in the University of Oulu’s attractiveness as a study destination.