Population projection of Western Uusimaa

The Wellbeing Services County of Western Uusimaa needed a well-founded assessment of its future population development. As a first step, a framework for the regional analysis was established. The study used the municipalities’ small-area statistical units as the basis for the intra-municipal division of areas.

The first phase of the study consisted of an overview of the actual development of the region and its municipalities, as well as the structure of population development. The analysis of past trends identified key characteristics of development in the region and its municipalities, including the polarisation of development within the region and differences in population trends between language groups.

Based on the analysis of past development, assumptions were developed and justified for anticipating future trends. Based on MDI’s initial proposal and discussions with the client, assumptions were established for each municipality for the “main scenario”, which simulated future development using conservative assumptions. In addition, four alternative scenarios were calculated, varying, among other things, the volume and spatial distribution of immigration and domestic migration.

The actual forecast was produced for the region’s 10 municipalities and their approximately 400 sub-municipal areas. The forecast also took into account the characteristics of the different intra-municipal areas and development projects planned in the region, including construction and, for example, the West Railway (Länsirata) project. The forecast resulted in a comprehensive dataset.

The dataset was delivered to the client for further use. Based on the data, a report was produced examining different future outlooks for the region and the uncertainties associated with them.