Population projection and expert support for the city of Nokia

MDI provided a demographic analysis and a population projection for the city of Nokia up to 2040. The analysis viewed the dynamics of the demographic development of Nokia from the perspective of both the city as a whole and the nine areas forming the municipality as a whole, with these nine areas formed from smaller areas around the city. On the basis of the analysis, both the city-wide projection and the area-by-area projections were formed, taking into account all the elements of demographic development but also the effects of zoning and construction volume on future demographic development. Based on the different volumes of construction, several different scenarios were drawn up to illustrate the different levels of construction and thus the different demographic development. The project also created an iterative projection model for Nokia, where the client can test the effects of different construction volumes. The results strongly depend on the different scenarios; in some scenarios the growth is very strong while in others it is very moderate. Growth does however concentrate to urban areas with the population development of sparsely populated areas remaining weak. All scenarios are linked by a significant ageing of the population.

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