Future population projections for Kerava and Kerava’s city districts

MDI carried out the 2024 sub-regional demographic projection for the city of Kerava in two scenarios. The aim of the work was to provide a well-founded description of the future population growth and demographic structure of the city of Kerava and its city districts, taking into account the structure of the city’s population growth, changes in the wider demographic logic of the Helsinki region and the impact of the city’s planned future development.

The work started with an analysis of the actual development and the baseline situation, which provided a description of the demographic development of the city and its demographic structure. At the same time, the main changes compared to the starting points of previous plans were taken into account. The intermediate result was a comprehensive description of the city’s demography and the trends affecting its future development. The intermediate results were used to formulate assumptions for two future development scenarios.

The assumptions, based on the analysis of the development with the client, were first used to develop a city-level modelling of future demographic trends by age group. This was refined to the district level of the city, taking into account the characteristics of each district and the impact of the planned housing development in each area, by house type.

The final result was a modelling of the development of the city and its districts over the period 2024-2040 and a description of the development by age group.