At the end of last year, Statistics Finland published a new population projection, according to which Finland’s population will begin to decline by the 2030s. The primary reason for this is the sharp decline in the birth rate during the current decade. Statistics Finland did not publish a municipal or regional projection. Its latest projection by municipality for 2015 was a product of its time and is based on an optimistic projection for birth rates. The MDI-projection released at the end of week 8 includes a calculation of demographic trends in 10 urban areas up to 2040.
The result of the projection differs significantly from the regional projection published by Statistics Finland in 2015. The fall in birth rates has been the largest demographic change since 2015. In addition, the shrinkage of migrant age groups in the outermost regions of many urban areas is also surprisingly strong in larger urban areas. The MDI forecast shows the crucial impact of these changes on Finland’s future regional and demographic development. The forecast now published for the whole country is compatible with Statistics Finland’s forecast published last year for the whole country.
The population projection is calculated on a projection based on relative migration susceptibility. Thus, the MDI projection shows a development trend based on assumptions derived from developments in the second half of the 2010s. The decline in birth rates is expected to remain at the 2018 level while the trend in respect of domestic migration in recent years continues. The report also presents a trend calculation based on the 2010 figures in their entirety, as well as a sensitivity projection, where the birth rate continues to fall below the current level by some 5%.
MDI plans to publish a report covering all regions in March. In addition, MDI can, by individual assignment, make municipal-specific projections by age group and customise the parameters for each region.