Population forecast for 10 urban areas in Finland

Statistics Finland released a new population forecast at the end of 2018, according to which Finland’s population will begin to decline in the 2030s. The reason for this is the sharp decline in the birth rate during the current decade. Statistics Finland did not publish a municipal or regional forecast. Statistics Finland’s latest municipal population projection for 2015 was a product of its time and it has now been seen to be based on a birth rate projection which was too high. MDI calculated the current regional demographic trends in 10 central urban areas around Finland. The prediction extends out to 2040. The collapse of the birth rate will cause unexpected changes in the demographic trends of the big cities and their surrounding areas. The population projection was calculated and based on the relative susceptibility to move. Thus, the MDI forecast estimates the evolution, over time, based on assumptions derived from the demographic developments of the second half of the 2010s. The decline in birth rates is expected to come to a halt at the 2018 level while domestic migration will follow the trend path seen in recent years. The report also includes a trend calculation based on the full 2010 figures, as well as a sensitivity forecast where the birth rate will still fall by 5%. The result of the forecast differs significantly from the regional forecast published by Statistics Finland in 2015. The collapse in birth rates has been the biggest demographic change since 2015. In addition, in the 2030s, the shrinkage of the 15- to 34-year-olds in the out-migration areas of many urban areas will also have a surprisingly strong impact on population development in larger urban areas. The MDI forecast shows the decisive impact of these changes on Finland’s future regional and demographic development. Published forecasts for the whole country are compatible with the countrywide forecast released by Statistics Finland last year. Materials: www.mdi.fi/ennuste2040