According to our province-specific population forecast, the provinces that will continue to grow up to 2040 in mainland Finland are Uusimaa, Pirkanmaa and Varsinais-Suomi. The biggest relative winner in the comparison is Åland. The MDI forecast shows a regional development trend based on assumptions derived from developments during the 2015-2018 period.
According to the MDI forecast, the population of Uusimaa will increase by 293 000 during the forecast period. The combined populations of Pirkanmaa, Southwest Finland and Åland will also grow by some 35 500 inhabitants. Thus, the provinces of the three largest urban districts show the most favourable results, with the smallest provincial counties increasingly challenged by their age structures.
Future demographic trends will increase regional segregation between the different parts of the country and even between the provinces. Positive demographic trends will in the future be predominantly focused on the growth triangle (e.g. Kanta-Häme) and Åland. International migration is the main contributor to regional population growth. The number of people over the age of 65 is increasing in all provinces while the number of children in all provinces is decreasing with the exception of Åland.
For more details see www.mdi.fi/ennuste2040.